As you may know, we live in an age where we learn more and more about metrics. Often times, we get so lost in stats that we look right past some that can so clearly be helpful to our modern time. Instead of calculating the spin rate of a ball, I feel that the public MLB viewer should be made more aware of stats that simply make more sense. This particular reason is why I am creating what I call the: Record Of Simple Statistical Information or ROSSI.
Rossi will be comprised of various statistics, but today we will be focusing on one main algorithm I created. I call it, RBiVal or The value of an RBI.
Now let’s think. If Hanley Ramirez had 111 RBIs in 2016 and Anthony Rizzo had 109, you could make an argument that Hanley had the upper hand in that category. And for decades, that’s how it’s been perceived. But now, my algorithm changes the game.
I have spent many nights creating this, putting pencil to paper, and it is finally complete and accurate. Look at it this way: Mookie Betts had a better season as for his ability to score runners on base than Nolan Arenado. Arenado led the MLB with 133. Betts had 113. And here’s why Betts did better.
Look at a dollar bill and what it can buy for you. In Beverly Hills, that dollar may mean nothing. But in poor parts of America, that dollar has a much higher value. Though taken to an extreme, this is the foundation of RBiVal.
Okay so now let’s apply this to the MLB. I hope I don’t lose you because if you can follow what I’m going to say, this will blow your mind.
When you come up to the plate, your spot in the batting order may feel irrelevant, but it is so much more than that. Your spot in the batting order signifies the chaces of having runners on base. In other words, if you’re batting 4th, you have an advantage over someone batting eighth, because the 8th batter has batters before him that are less likely to be on base.
Next I took a look at the average OBP. (On Base Percentage) of the average player’s spot in the batting order. It is not hard to see that the first, second and fourth batters had the highest amongst the others.
Here’s where it gets good. I assigned numbers to the 9 batting order positions, based on their likelihood of reaching base. They range from .27 to .33, with .33 meaning they have a 1/3 chance of getting on base. Obviously, the .33 belongs to the leadoff hitter.
What we do next is multiply the average OBP of the three batters before you, giving them a score which translates to how likely they are to be on base when you are at the plate.
Now, you inverse the numbers with an x-value of 3, meaning someone with a .29 will have a .31. Someone with a .32 will have a .28. This basically adds value to the hitters who bat behind people who are less likely to be on base.
The leadoff hitter will have the 7, 8, and 9 hitters before him, meaning his BoN will be a .327. The 4 hitter will have the lowest because he has the three highest OBP spots right before him (.0223).
Okay now it gets fun. We now take the players RBI totals along with their lineup spot. You take their lineup spot (which is from 1-9) and find the BoN (which ranges from .0231 to .0327). You multiply that number by .85, just to take a bit of weight off, and then multiply that times the amount of RBIs they had.
Here are a few examples
Nolan Arenado, who bats third, has a BoN of .0254. He finished the season with 133 RBIs. Once you multiply the .85 by the (.0254), you multiply that number by his RBI total. That number should be somewhere from 2 -3. 2 being decent and 3 being incredible. His RBiVal is 2.86.
David Ortiz, who bats fourth, has a BoN of .0223. He finished the season with 127 RBIs. Once you multiply the .85 by the (.0223), you multiply that number by his RBI total. His RBiVal is 2.4.
Okay now here’s my favorite part. The leadoff hitter. Typically, leadoff hitters have batters on base who are from the end of the lineup, meaning they have a lower chance of getting on base.
Mookie Betts, a leadoff hitter, has a BoN of .0327. He finished the season with 113 RBIs. Once you multiply the .85 by the (.0327), you multiply that number by his RBI total. His RBiVal is an astonishing 3.13.
You can do this with any player using the simple equation I created
This proves that Mookie Betts is better at driving in runs than Nolan Arenado, who finished with 20 more RBIs than Betts.
I hope the MLB will soon use my formula to more accurately judge the way players drive in runs.